Did Indira Gandhi mull attacking Pakistan nuclear sites? This CIA document claims so!

In a shocking revelation, a declassified Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) document has claimed that former Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi had considered a military strike on Pakistan’s nuclear sites to prevent it from acquiring weapons capabilities.

The document titled “India’s Reaction to Nuclear Developments in Pakistan” also highlights that Indira Gandhi was not happy with America’s move to arm Islamabad with F-16 fighter jet in the early 1980s.

The 12-page document, approved for release on November 30, 2009, was posted on the CIA website in June this year. Here’s a look at some of its major highlights:

1. On Gandhi considering a military strike

In the extreme case, if Indian concerns increase over the next two or three months, we believe the conditions could be ripe for a decision by Prime Minister Gandhi to instigate a military confrontation with Pakistan, primarily to provide a framework for destroying Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.

2.  On Gandhi authorising Indian nuclear test preparations.

In February (1981), excavation was begun in the Thar desert to permit the underground explosion of an Indian test device on short notice. In May, preparations had been completed by India for a 40-kiloton nuclear test – presumably preparation of the device itself as excavation at the test site was still underway.

3. On exploding the device one week after the expected Pakistani test

Evidently, the Indian Government calculated that a Pakistani nuclear explosion per se would not constitute a national security threat, and that the damage to India’s image of pre-eminence in the region could be minimised by a resumption of the peaceful nuclear explosive (PNE) programme.

4. On carrying out the strike plan

Prime Minister Gandhi probably has not made a decision to exercise a military option against Pakistan. In the extreme case, if India’s concern about deliveries of F-16s to Pakistan increases before the optimum time for exercising the military option (in October or November according to one report), the conditions could be ripe for Prime Minister Gandhi to carry out the contingency strike plan.

5. On her attitude towards exercising India’s own nuclear weapons option

If, on the other hand, the Indians are seriously considering the establishment of their own nuclear strike capability against China, destruction of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities would become a less attractive option. From the Indian perspective, it would have the serious drawback of inviting Chinese intervention.

6. On the world’s reaction to an Indian attack

Moreover, the international reaction to an Indian attack probably would be severe, reliance on the option of building a nuclear deterrent force to deal with the Pakistani nuclear threat would extend India’s time for reaction until nearly the point when Pakistan actually began to produce deployable nuclear weapons, which probably would not occur before late PNE tests, perhaps permitting a thermonuclear test. 

7. On recommendations in favour of exercising the nuclear weapons option

We have also noted that Gandhi has at least some interest in this viewpoint. But we do not know whether the Prime Minister favours that course and we have not observed any activity by the Indian military that would suggest authorisation for a nuclear weapons programme.

READ THE CIA DOCUMENT HERE

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