An opinion poll may not be accurate each time but it does throw light on things to come! Based on an opinion poll conducted by CVoter, broadcast on India TV, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front may mark a return in the forthcoming Kerala assembly polls, while Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress may get a second term in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK may fail to win the majority in the 234 seat assembly and in Assam the BJP-led alliance may have an upper hand over ruling Congress.
In Kerala, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to win only 49 seats, fewer when compared to the 72 seats which they won five years before. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 89 seats, with a clear majority in a House of 140. BJP-led NDA is projected to win only one.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, though her party Trinamool Congress’ share in seats would come down to 156 from 184 seats in a House of 294. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 114 seats, 54 seats more than what it had won five years before, while Congress’ share of seats may see a fall from 42 seats (five years before) to 13 this time. ‘Others’ are projected to win 7 seats.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, in a fierce contest with Karunanidhi’s DMK, may fall two seats short of majority in a House of 234. AIADMK is projected to win only 116 seats, down from 203 seats, while the DMK’s share may rise from 31 to 101. BJP may win none while ‘Others’ are projected to win 17 seats.
In Assam, the BJP-led alliance (including Bodo People’s Front) is projected to win 57 seats in a House of 126, seven short of majority. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s Congress is projected to win 44 seats, 34 seats fewer than five years before. Badruddin Ajmal’s All Indian United Democratic Front is projected to win 19 seats, one more than the previous time. ‘Others’ may win six.
The CVoter clarified that the survey in Assam was conducted prior to the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and BJP tie-up and that the full impact of this tie-up will only be evident in the next round of survey. AGP’s figures in this survey are featured along with those of ‘Others’.
The margin of error is claimed only to be three per cent at the state level and five percent at the regional level. These results may vary during the later stages of campaign.
